September 2024

Good afternoon TAG Talk readers!

It has been a while since we last delivered our thoughts to you, hasn’t it? Ultimately, the markets have performed well, the economy has been marching onward, and we lacked a meaningful subject to highlight for you. The Election is less than 2 months around the corner, and that definitely feels like a worthy subject to chat with you about. Typically, we receive more than a few calls from clients with angst about what will happen if the “crooked” Democrat or the “criminal” Republican gets into office. It’s worth noting that I didn’t name any candidates, because the partisan name calling repeats itself every election regardless of individual candidate!

Historically, a good move for investors has been to stay invested regardless of who wins office. If people got out of the market every time their favored party lost a presidential race, investors would have spent roughly half of the last century on the sidelines. 

Going back to 1929, we have had a total of 16 different presidents in the United States, and just 3 of those presidents left office with the US equity markets lower than when they started (Herbert Hoover 1929-1933, Richard Nixon 1969-1974, and George W. Bush 2001-2009). See for yourself with this interactive chart.

Among those presidents, Hoover inherited a flawed banking system that hastened the Great Depression, Nixon had to manage the breakup of the Bretton-Woods international monetary system, and Bush endured subprime mortgages nearly taking down the financial system. For
each of these presidents, no specific mistake on their part was the cause of the market downturn during their terms (in my personal opinion).

That’s all the past however, and the present day is what matters to us. What if Trump or Kamala is elected president!?!? Simply look to the candidates’ experience and reputation for clues. We’ve already had 4 years of Donald Trump, and whether benefiting from or in spite of
his bombastic persona, the markets performed well. For Kamala Harris, she’s been the Vice President under a very unpopular Joe Biden for 4 years, and the market has gone up despite people’s feelings for him as well. It is typically a smart move to go well beyond your feelings for a president when managing investments!

Looking at the public opinions of Trump vs. Harris on trust with the economy, recent polling in August from The Financial Times and the University of Michigan found that Harris leads Trump 42% to 41% among registered voters on the subject. For all intents and purposes, that result is a down the middle tie on handling the economy between the candidates when the statistical margin of error is factored in. There are plenty of reasons to love or hate either candidate, but their prospective handling of the economy is not defining among those reasons since both have a history of being business friendly in courting CEO’s as well as Wall Street executives.

At the end of the day, we believe in the strength of the United States’ people and their desire to achieve prosperity. No matter which party wins the White House, people will strive for a better future for us all. 

The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Wealth Services, LLC, and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.