November 2025

Good morning TAG Talks faithful!

In front of your eyes is our inaugural edition of the TAG Talks Quarterly Investment Report. For over a decade we have researched, produced, and discussed sentiments on the markets and how we implement investment strategies. The sections below cover the economic and market details as well as updates on some of our portfolio positioning decisions.

In addition to what is written below, we provide for you the following in depth releases by Cetera’s esteemed in-house research team:

• CIM 3rd Quarter Recap
• CIM 4th Quarter Outlook

Ansardi Group 3rd Quarter Summary

The third quarter as measured by the July/August/September months was by and large a good period for the markets with continued appreciation in index values both here in the United States, and abroad as measured by EAFE index values. This was a continuation of the market rebounds we saw following the temporary market declines in April due to adverse reaction to the “Liberation Day” tariffs that were presented to the public and then used as a negotiating tactic with the United State’s Trading Partners. Continued dealmaking in the tech sector surrounding the artificial intelligence data center buildout provided a major tailwind to domestic markets overall.

Ansardi Group 4th Quarter and Beyond Commentary

Going into the end of the year and early 2026, at The Ansardi Group we are optimistic about the long term but striking a more cautious wait and see approach in the near term. There is a tentative deal to end the 40+ day government shutdown that is hanging over the economy’s head as of this writing on November 10th, and other potential headwinds are married with tremendous opportunity. 

A major source of uncertainty is whether Trump’s Tariff regime under the “International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977” (IEEPA) survives Supreme Court scrutiny. Early arguments presented during the week of November 3rd have been met with skepticism by the justices, which spells trouble for continued use of IEEPA. Even if Trump’s current tariff regime loses in front of the court, there is an expectation he will use other acts in US law to continue using tariffs for revenue and efforts to re-shore US manufacturing. The ultimate sticking point is the president’s ability to unilaterally enact taxes, which has historically been left up to Congress. Should the IEEPA tariffs get struck down, there will be winners and losers as uncertainty over the next round of tariff implementation is revealed. We will be watching this very closely to find the risks and opportunities in the markets.

Artificial intelligence related dealmaking and associated investments have been a tremendous tailwind to markets and the economy so far in 2025. This emerging technology points to a future where companies around the world will be able to utilize next-generation tech tools to make their operations more efficient. The main question at this stage is whether the high valuations of artificial intelligence stocks are warranted. We believe that this technology is a tremendous tool for the future as it evolves, but do expect significant stock price volatility measured both in rapidly rising and rapidly falling markets. The current sentiment suggests that valuations may be near a temporary top, but absent the metaphorical crystal ball to predict the future we cannot be certain.

Overall, the economy has exhibited robust growth year to date. There is both strength in tech and some weakness in lower income households. Long term, we do believe that artificial intelligence has the potential to raise the rest of the economy up while companies and workers adjust to the new reality of the employment picture.

Ansardi Group Industry Portfolio Sentiments

For those of our clients in our “Industry ETF” portfolio series, this section is a short summary that outlines our sentiments for the next 12 months in our model positioning. We base our portfolio positioning on the S&P 500 and adjust our weights according to our forward-looking sentiments.

Throughout the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2025, we have struck a more “defensive” posture in our positioning. Artificial intelligence has already been mentioned several times in this TAG Talks, and it is just as relevant in this section. Our belief is that the technology can be a tremendous opportunity for companies across the broader economy to become more efficient in operations and provide better service to customers. We are cautious about sky-high valuations in the information technology sector, and are postured in more defensive sectors as viewed by our investment committee:

• Current Overweights: Aerospace & Defense, Utilities, Consumer Staples
• Current Underweights: Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Real Estate, Communications, Energy

Fund Changes In Our Investment Portfolio

At this time, we are satisfied with all mutual funds and ETFs we use for our clients. No funds are currently on a close watchlist for removal. 

Kind Regards,

Dan Rodbell, MBA
Financial Advisor